America's War Economy

Yes, America's economy is a war economy. Not a "manufacturing" economy. Not an "agricultural" economy. Nor a "service" economy. Not even a "consumer" economy.Seriously, I looked into your eyes, America, saw deep into your soul. So let's get honest and officially call it "America's Outrageous War Economy." Admit it: Americans secretly love their war economy. And that's the answer to Jim Grant's thought-provoking question last month in the Wall Street Journal -- "Why No Outrage?"
There really is only one answer: Deep inside Americans love war. They want war. Need it. Relish it. Thrive on war. War is in our genes, deep in their DNA. War excites their economic brain. War drives their entrepreneurial spirit. War thrills the American soul. Oh just admit it, they have a love affair with war.They love "America's Outrageous War Economy."
Americans passively zone out playing video war games. They nod at 90-second news clips of Afghan war casualties and collateral damage in Georgia. They laugh at Jon Stewart's dark comedic news and Ben Stiller's new war spoof "Tropic Thunder" ... all the while silently, by default, they're cheering on their leaders as they aggressively expand "America's Outrageous War Economy," a relentless machine that needs a steady diet of war after war, feeding on itself, consuming our values, always on the edge of self-destruction.
Why else are Americans so eager and willing to surrender 54% of their tax dollars to a war machine, which consumes 47% of the world's total military budgets?
Why are there more civilian mercenaries working for no-bid private war contractors than the total number of enlisted military in Iraq (180,000 to 160,000), at an added cost to taxpayers in excess of $200 billion and climbing daily?
Why do they shake their collective heads "yes" when their commander-in-chief proudly tells them he is a "war president;" and his party's presidential candidate chants "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran," as if "war" is a celebrity hit song?
Why do their spineless Democrats let an incompetent, blundering executive branch hide hundreds of billions of war costs in sneaky "supplemental appropriations" that are more crooked than Enron's off-balance-sheet deals?
Why have Washington's 537 elected leaders turned the governance of the American economy over to 42,000 greedy self-interest lobbyists?
And why earlier this year did their "support-our-troops" "war president" resist a new GI Bill because, as he said, his military might quit and go to college rather than re-enlist in his war; now they continue paying the Pentagon's warriors huge $100,000-plus bonuses to re-up so they can keep expanding "America's Outrageous War Economy?" Why? Because Americans secretly love war!
They've lost our moral compass: The contrast between today's leaders and the 56 signers of the Declaration of Independence in 1776 shocks their conscience. Today war greed trumps morals. During the Revolutionary War their leaders risked their lives and fortunes; many lost both.
Today it's the opposite: Too often their leaders' main goal is not public service but a ticket to building a personal fortune in the new "America's Outrageous War Economy," often by simply becoming a high-priced lobbyist.
Ultimately, the price of their greed may be the fulfillment of Kevin Phillips' warning in "Wealth and Democracy:" "Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out."
'National defense' a propaganda slogan selling a war economy?But wait,
you ask: Isn't our $1.4 trillion war budget essential for "national defense" and "homeland security?" Don't Americans have to protect ourselves?
Sorry folks, but their leaders have degraded those honored principles to advertising slogans. They're little more than flag-waving excuses used by neocon war hawks to disguise the buildup of private fortunes in "America's Outrageous War Economy."
America may be a ticking time bomb, but they are threatened more by enemies within than external terrorists, by ideological fanatics on the left and the right. Most of all, they are under attack by their elected leaders who are motivated more by pure greed than ideology. They terrorize them, brainwashing them into passively letting them steal their money to finance "America's Outrageous War Economy," the ultimate "black hole" of corruption and trickle-up economics.
You think I'm kidding? I'm maybe too harsh? Sorry but others are far more brutal. Listen to the ideologies and realities eating at America's soul.
1. Their toxic 'war within' is threatening America's soul
How powerful is the Pentagon's war machine? Trillions in dollars. But worse yet: Their mindset is now locked deep in their DNA, in their collective conscience, in America's soul. Their love of war is enshrined in the writings of neocon war hawks like Norman Podoretz, who warns the Iraq War was the launching of "World War IV: The Long Struggle Against Islamofascism," a reminder that they could be occupying Iraq for a hundred years. His WW IV also reminded us of the coming apocalyptic end-of-days "war of civilizations" predicted by religious leaders in both Christian and Islamic worlds two years ago.
In contrast, this ideology has been challenged in works like Craig Unger's "American Armageddon: How the Delusions of the Neoconservatives and the Christian Right Triggered the Descent of America -- and Still Imperil Americans' Future."
Unfortunately, neither threat can be dismissed as "all in their minds" nor as merely ideological rhetoric. Trillions of tax dollars are in fact being spent to keep the Pentagon war machine aggressively planning and expanding wars decades in advance, including spending billions on propaganda brainwashing naïve Americans into co-signing "America's Outrageous War Economy." Yes, they really love war, but that "love" is toxic for America's soul.

2. America's war economy financed on blank checks to greedy
Read Nobel Economist Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard professor Linda Bilmes' "$3 Trillion War." They show how their government's deceitful leaders are secretly hiding the real long-term costs of the Iraq War, which was originally sold to the American taxpayer with a $50 billion price tag and funded out of oil revenues.
But add in all the lifetime veterans' health benefits, equipment placement costs, increased homeland security and interest on new federal debt, and suddenly taxpayers got a $3 trillion war tab!
3. America's war economy has no idea where its money goes
Read Portfolio magazine's special report "The Pentagon's $1 Trillion Problem." The Pentagon's 2007 budget of $440 billion included $16 billion to operate and upgrade its financial system. Unfortunately "the defense department has spent billions to fix its antiquated financial systems [but] still has no idea where its money goes."
And it gets worse: Back "in 2000, Defense's inspector general told Congress that his auditors stopped counting after finding $2.3 trillion in unsupported entries." Yikes, our war machine has no records for $2.3 trillion! How can we trust anything they say?
4. America's war economy is totally 'unmanageable'
For decades Washington has been waving that "national defense" flag, to force the public into supporting "America's Outrageous War Economy." Read John Alic's "Trillions for Military Technology: How the Pentagon Innovates and Why It Costs So Much."
A former Congressional Office of Technology Assessment staffer, he explains why weapon systems cost the Pentagon so much, "why it takes decades to get them into production even as innovation in the civilian economy becomes ever more frenetic and why some of those weapons don't work very well despite expenditures of many billions of dollars," and how "the internal politics of the armed services make weapons acquisition almost unmanageable." Yes, the Pentagon wastes trillions planning its wars well in advance.

America Must Come Down To Earth

The U.S. had taken advantage of temporary confusion in Russia, during the ten-year-long post-Soviet-collapse interval, and set up a client government in Georgia, complete with military advisors, sales of weapons, and even the promise of club membership in the Western alliance known as NATO. These blandishments were all in the service of the Baku-to-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which was designed specifically to drain the oil region around the Caspian Basin with an outlet on the Mediterranean, avoiding unfriendly nations all along the way.At the time this gambit was first set up, in the early 1990s, there was some notion (or wish, really) among the so-called western powers that the Caspian would provide an end-run around OPEC and the Arabs, as well as the Persians, and deliver all the oil that the US and Europe would ever need – a foolish wish and a dumb gambit, as things have turned out.For one thing, the latterly explorations of this very old oil region – first opened to drilling in the 19th century – proved somewhat disappointing. U.S. officials had been touting it as like unto “another Saudi Arabia” but the oil actually produced from the new drilling areas of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and the other Stans turned out to be preponderantly heavy-and-sour crudes, in smaller quantities than previously dreamed-of, and harder to transport across the extremely challenging terrain to even get to the pipeline head in Baku.Meanwhile, Russia got its house in order under the non-senile, non-alcoholic Vladimir Putin, and woke up along about 2007 to find itself the leading oil and natural gas producer in the world. Among the various consequences of this was Russia’s reemergence as a new kind of world power – an energy resource power, with the energy destiny of Europe pretty much in its hands. Also, meanwhile, the USA had set up other client states in the ring of former Soviet republics along Russia’s southern underbelly, complete with U.S. military bases, while fighting active engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, if this wasn’t the dumbest, vainest move in modern geopolitical history!It’s one thing that U.S. foreign policy wonks imagined that Russia would remain in a coma forever, but the idea that we could encircle Russia strategically with defensible bases in landlocked mountainous countries halfway around the world...? You have to ask what were they smoking over at the Pentagon and the CIA and the NSC?So, this asinine policy has now come to grief. Not only does Russia stand to gain control over the Baku-to-Ceyhan pipeline, but we now have every indication that they will bring the states on its southern flank back into an active sphere of influence, and there is really not a damn thing that the U.S. can pretend to do about it.America could have spent the past ten years getting its own house in order – waking up to the obsolescence of our suburban life-style, scaling back on the Happy Motoring, reconnecting their cities with world-class passenger rail, creating wealth by producing things of value (instead of resorting to financial racketeering), protecting their borders, and taking the necessary measures to defend and update their own industries. Instead, they pissed their time and resources away. Nations do make tragic errors of the collective will. The cluelessness of George Bush is nothing less than a perfect metaphor for the failure of a whole generation. The Boomers will be identified as the generation that wrecked America.So, as the vacation season winds down, America greets a new reality. They miscalculated in Western and Central Asia. Russia still “owns” that part of the world. Are Americans going to extend their current land wars there into the even more distant and landlocked Stan-nations? At some point, as they face financial and military exhaustion, they have to ask themselves if they can even successfully evacuate their personnel from the far-flung bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.This must be an equally sobering moment for Europe, and an additional reason for the recent plunge in the relative value of the Euro, for Europe is now at the mercy of Russia in terms of staying warm in the winter, running their kitchen stoves, and keeping the lights on. Russia also exerts substantial financial leverage over the U.S. in all the dollars and securitized U.S. debt paper it holds. In effect, Russia can shake the U.S. banking system at will now by threatening to dump its dollar holdings.The American banking system may not need a shove from Russia to fall on its face. It’s effectively dead now, just lurching around zombie-like from one loan “window” to the next pretending to “borrow” capital – while handing over shreds of its moldy clothing as “collateral” to the Federal Reserve. The entire US, beyond the banks, is becoming a land of the walking dead. Business is dying, home-ownership has become a death dance, whole regions are turning into wastelands of “for sale” signs, empty parking lots, vacant buildings, and dashed hopes. And all this beats a path directly to a failure of collective national imagination. Americans really don’t know what’s going on.The fantasy that they can sustain their influence nine thousand miles away, when they can’t even get their act together in Ohio is just a dark joke. One might state categorically that it would be a salubrious thing for America to knock off all its vaunted “dreaming” and just wake up.

New Era of Credit Contraction

There is no doubt in my mind that since the early 1970’s the global economic boom has been largely financed by an ever-expanding quantity of money and credit. Once gold was removed from the monetary system in 1971, central banks were free to create as much paper currencies as they wanted. This reckless monetary inflation and credit growth has caused the value of “money” to diminish significantly over the past three decades and created a gigantic boom in global asset prices. Each time an asset “bubble” has burst in the past 35 years, central banks have responded by reducing interest-rates, thereby encouraging even more credit growth, which has spawned further speculative manias down the road. This time around, in the aftermath of the Anglo-Saxon housing bust, Mr. Bernanke and his comrades are desperately trying to do the same and the trillion dollar question is whether they will succeed. In the current circumstances, I suspect it will be extremely difficult for the central banks to further expand credit growth, thereby inflating their way out of trouble. Below I present the reasons why I am doubtful about the continuation of the credit bubble:First and foremost, in the current credit crisis, the entire banking system is being brought to its knees. This is very different to the previous crises when perhaps a handful of financial institutions or hedge funds got into trouble. Unfortunately, the financial alchemy (creation of structured products, over the counter derivatives, collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps etc.) over the past few years has been so severe that the entire banking system is now on the verge of a total collapse. So, even if the central banks tried to further inflate the credit bubble by keeping interest-rates low for an extended period of time, I doubt if the commercial banks are in any position to expand their balance sheets. With billions of dollars of write-downs in the past year and humungous “Level 3” liabilities still undisclosed, the commercial banks have no other option but to try and repair the damage to their balance sheets by tightening credit standards. So, I doubt very much if they (for the foreseeable future) will participate in the central banks’ sponsored credit and inflation agenda. Secondly, I also happen to think that as a result of so many ridiculous tax-payer sponsored bail-outs of Wall Street banks, the U.S. government and regulators will tighten their grip over the ministry of inflation (the banking industry). Therefore, tighter regulation in the months ahead will also prevent the commercial banks from inflating the credit bubble further. Another reason why I believe we have reached the inflection point in this credit cycle is the state of the U.S. dollar. With the U.S. dollar trading at record-lows against major world currencies and soaring energy and food costs, I doubt very much if the Federal Reserve is in a position to lower interest-rates further. In fact, I would argue that the situation is totally out of the Federal Reserve’s control and the entire global economy now depends on the mercy of the owners of U.S. Treasuries. I have to admit that so far, given the amount of bail-outs and the state of the U.S. dollar, holders of U.S. government bonds have been rather well behaved. However, it may only be a matter of time before foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries start liquidating their holdings. When that occurs, long-term interest-rates in the United States would rise rapidly and the Federal Reserve would have no other option but to raise its Fed Funds rate. Finally, given the level of indebtedness of the U.S. consumer and falling asset prices, I wonder how the average American household would be able to take on even more debt. Once the technology bubble burst at the turn of the millennium and the Federal Reserve lowered interest-rates, Americans were quick to borrow and speculate in real-estate. However, this time around in the aftermath of the housing bust, even though the cost of borrowing has been reduced, Americans are not going deeper into debt. U.S. bank credit peaked earlier this year and is now in a decline. So, if American households are really tightening their belts and repaying their outstanding debt, there is no way the credit bubble would continue to inflate. It is my observation that we have now entered a new era of credit contraction and deleveraging. The abrupt bursting of the credit bubble is likely to have a profound impact on asset prices in the West. If my view is correct, we are likely to see a period of poor economic growth and deflating asset prices in the developed world. The U.S. economy is clearly struggling, Europe faces its own problems and Japan cannot seem to turn things around. So, I would not advise you to invest your capital in stock markets or real-estate in the industrialized nations.There can be no disputing the fact that U.S. financial assets have provided disappointing returns since the beginning of this decade. It is worth noting that even though the Dow Jones index is flat in nominal terms since 2000, it has lost more than half of its value against gold over the same period. At the turn of the millennium, the level of the Dow Jones could buy over 40 ounces of gold. Eight years later, the level of the Dow Jones can only buy roughly 12 ounces of gold! Clearly, gold has been a much better investment than U.S. stocks over the past eight years. In the years ahead, I expect to see further underperformance of financial assets and maintain my position that hard, tangible assets will continue to provide superior returns.

The Worst Is yet To Come

This is by far the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression
Hundreds of small banks with massive exposure to real estate (the average small bank has 67% of its assets in real estate) will go bust
Dozens of large regional/national banks (a’ la IndyMac) are also bankrupt given their extreme exposure to real estate and will also go bust
Some major money center banks are also semi-insolvent and while they are deemed too big to fail their rescue with FDIC money will be extremely costly.
In a few years time there will be no major independent broker dealers as their business model (securitization, slice & dice and transfer of toxic credit risk and piling fees upon fees rather than earning income from holding credit risk) is bust and the risk of a bank-like run on their very short term liquid liabilities is a fundamental flaw in their structure (i.e. the four remaining U.S. big brokers dealers will either go bust or will have to be merged with traditional commercial banks). Firms that borrow liquid and short, highly leverage themselves and lend in longer term and illiquid ways (i.e. most of the shadow banking system) cannot survive without formal deposit insurance and formal permanent lender of last resort support from the central bank.
The FDIC that has already depleted 10% of its funds in the rescue of IndyMac alone will run out of funds and will have to be recapitalized by Congress as its insurance premia were woefully insufficient to cover the hole from the biggest banking crisis since the Great Depression
Fannie and Freddie are insolvent and the Treasury bailout plan (the mother of all moral hazard bailout) is socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street; it is the continuation of a corrupt system where profits are privatized and losses are socialized. Instead of wiping out shareholders of the two GSEs, replacing corrupt and incompetent managers and forcing a haircut on the claims of the creditors/bondholders such a plan bails out shareholders, managers and creditors at a massive cost to U.S. taxpayers.
This financial crisis will imply credit losses of at least $1 trillion and more likely $2 trillion.
This is not just a subprime mortgage crisis; this is the crisis of an entire subprime financial system: losses are spreading from subprime to near prime and prime mortgages; to commercial real estate; to unsecured consumer credit (credit cards, student loans, auto loans); to leveraged loans that financed reckless debt-laden LBOs; to muni bonds that will go bust as hundred of municipalities will go bust; to industrial and commercial loans; to corporate bonds whose default rate will jump from close to 0% to over 10%; to CDSs where $62 trillion of nominal protection sits on top an outstanding stock of only $6 trillion of bonds and where counterparty risk – and the collapse of many counterparties – will lead to a systemic collapse of this market.
This will be the most severe U.S. recession in decades with the U.S. consumer being on the ropes and faltering big time as soon as the temporary effect of the tax rebates will fade out by mid-summer (July). This U.S. consumer is shopped out, saving less, debt burdened and being hammered by falling home prices, falling equity prices, falling jobs and incomes, rising inflation and rising oil and energy prices. This will be a long, ugly and nasty U-shaped recession lasting 12 to 18 months, not the mild 6 month V-shaped recession that the delusional consensus expects.
Equity prices in the US and abroad will go much deeper in bear territory. In a typical US recession equity prices fall by an average of 28% relative to the peak. But this is not a typical US recession; it is rather a severe one associated with a severe financial crisis. Thus, equity prices will fall by about 40% relative to their peak. So, we are only barely mid-way in the meltdown of stock markets.
The rest of the world will not decouple from the US recession and from the US financial meltdown; it will re-couple big time. Already 12 major economies are on the way to a recessionary hard landing; while the rest of the world will experience a severe growth slowdown only one step removed from a global recession. Given this sharp global economic slowdown oil, energy and commodity prices will fall 20 to 30% from their recent bubbly peaks.
The current U.S recession and sharp global economic slowdown is combining the worst of the oil shocks of the 1970s with the worst of the asset/credit bust shocks (and ensuing credit crunch and investment busts) of 1990-91 and 2001: like in 1973 and 1979 we are facing a stagflationary shock to oil, energy and other commodity prices that by itself may tip many oil importing countries into a sharp slowdown or an outright recession. Also, like 1990-91 and 2001 we are now facing another asset bubble and credit bubble gone bust big time: the housing and overall household credit boom of the last seven years has now gone bust in the same way as the 1980s housing bubble and 1990s tech bubble went bust in 1990 and in 2000 triggering recessions. And a similar housing/asset/credit bubble is going bust in other countries – U.K., Spain, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, etc. – leading to a risk of a hard landing in these economies.
But over time inflation will be the last problem that the Fed will have to face as a severe US recession and global slowdown will lead to a sharp reduction in inflationary pressures in the U.S.: slack in goods markets with demand falling below supply will reduce pricing power of firms; slack in labor markets with unemployment rising will reduce wage pressures and labor costs pressures; a fall in commodity prices of the order of 20-30% will further reduce inflationary pressure. The Fed will have to cut the Fed Funds rate much more – as severe downside risks to growth and to financial stability will dominate any short-term upward inflationary pressures. Leaving aside the risk of a collapse of the US dollar given this easier monetary policy the Fed Funds rate may end up being closer to 0% than 1% by the end of this financial disaster and severe recession cycle.
The Bretton Woods 2 regime of fixed exchange rates to the US dollar and/or heavily managed exchange will unravel – as the first Bretton Woods regimes did in the early 1970s – as US twin deficits, recession, financial crisis and rising commodity and goods inflation in emerging market economies will destroy the basis for it existence.

How OPEC should invest its oil revenues

Every week Mid Eastern countries acquire more dollars in payment for their oil and other exports, and also for rising U.S. investment in their stock markets and other property. This confronts them with a problem: What can they do with these dollars? Traditionally, exporters have saved their export earnings by building up their assets. But is it still realistic for them to acquire more dollarized assets? Central banks throughout the world presently hold some $2.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds, and another trillion dollars in private-sector U.S. dollar debt. As the dollar’s exchange rate falls, these banks suffer losses when their holdings are denominated in their own currencies. Even more serious, the principal itself is now in question. There is no foreseeable way in which the United States can redeem its foreign debt. Its trade surplus continues to deteriorate, while its foreign military spending adds to the overall balance-of-payments deficit. This means that the United States is pumping more and more dollars into the rest of the world without any means of repaying them – or any intention to do so. That is why foreign countries are beginning to treat these dollars as “hot potatoes,” trying to get rid of them as fast as they can. But how can they all do this? China is using its new dollar inflows to try and buy up foreign raw materials assets, land and other assets needed for its long-term growth. And some Middle Eastern countries are buying long-term supply agreements for food and raw materials produced abroad. But fewer countries are eager to accept these dollars. And the U.S. Government is blocking foreign investment in the most desirable and remunerative domestic U.S. sectors as its politicians become more nationalistic. This threatens to limit foreign investment in the United States to the junk-mortgage market, to real estate that is falling in price, and loans to bail out U.S. banks and financial institutions as they fight off insolvency and their stock-market prices plunge. Middle East purchases of Citibank shares last year are the most notorious example. This means that Middle Eastern oil exporters – and indeed, European industrial exporters – are in effect giving their oil and other products away to U.S. consumers in exchange for paper IOUs that are in danger of becoming unspendable and hence worthless. Fortunately there is a better alternative. That is for Middle Eastern governments to invest their export earnings in building up their own economies rather than that of the United States and those of other dollar-area countries. Two thousand years ago, even during the high tide of Greece and the Roman Empire, the Middle East had long been the world’s most entrepreneurial and prosperous region. What is stopping it from reclaiming this historic position? A major problem is its arid desertification. This problem can be largely overcome by a combination of domestic infrastructure spending and long term international barter deals. Such deals are the indicated way to go when major currency markets become unstable – and it looks like exchange rates are going to keep on zigzagging and spiking over the coming decade or so. There is a striking parallel with the last time the Middle East began to receive sharply higher export earnings, after 1973. Back then, it arranged oil-for-infrastructure deals with Korean, Japanese and other Asian firms to build roads, hospitals and other construction needed to raise productivity and living standards. Today, China has entered the mix. And there is still a long way to go for investment in the array of public and private services that are needed to make the region one of the world’s most prosperous. The emergence of India, China and Pakistan as economic and even military powers (at least for defensive purposes), as well as Russia and Central Asia, already has led to creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which Iran already has joined. The world is becoming multi-polar, if only as a defensive response to U.S. attempts to give NATO a post-Cold-War role by extending it into the Middle East, Indian and Pacific regions. Inasmuch as Asia and India promise to emerge as the world’s major industrial centers – perhaps joined by South America’s leading nations – this economic realignment is inherently political in character. To speak bluntly, the United States opposes it as threatening its desire for unilateral hegemony. And bluntly is just how British Brigadier-General James Ellery CBE spoke on April 22 at the School of Oriental & African Studies (SOAS) in London. He described the U.S.-British Iraq War as having been fought to stop “the tide of Easternisation” – a shift in global political and economic power toward China and India, which together import some “two thirds of the Middle East’s oil.” General Ellery is in a position to know. He was the Foreign Office's Senior Adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad after 2003. In his talk he explained that U.S. global strategists were concerned that in response to the U.S. economic sanctions against Iraq, it – like Iran – might turn its economic focus eastward. This is the U.S. nightmare, because it has used the Middle East as a piggy bank to bail out the weakening American financial economy. After the first grain-and-oil shock in 1972-73 – when the United States quadrupled grain export prices, and OPEC responded by quadrupling oil prices – U.S. Treasury officials told Middle Eastern rulers that they could charge as much as they wanted for oil (thus providing domestic U.S. oil majors with a price umbrella that enriched their coffers), but that if they did not recycle their export earnings to the United States, this would be viewed as an act of war. This means that for the Middle East to use its export earnings to develop its own economies may require breaking with the U.S. diplomatic sphere. At the very least it gives the region an interest in getting the United States to end its occupation of Iraq – including the military bases it is now in the process of constructing. So I have a modest proposal for how to negotiate this quantum change in Middle Eastern-U.S. geopolitics: Offer to buy out the U.S. bases under construction, perhaps including the Green Zone buildup, at fair market value (certainly not at the exorbitant prices that Republican campaign contributors have been paid, with contracts that both the United Nations and the U.S. Congressional Budget office have found to have been corrupt and handled with improper oversight). This can best be done by making clear to the United States that the free lunch it obtained after going off gold in 1971 is over. This may sound like giving the United States its way in what looks like a protection racket. But protection may be well worth buying under today’s conditions. Two centuries ago the United States announced the Monroe Doctrine: Europe should leave the Western Hemisphere to U.S. as a sphere of influence. Is it not time for the world to act symmetrically and ask that the United States for its part leave the Eastern Hemisphere to that region’s nations, to develop as they wish in peace? The more publicly the Middle Eastern countries can make this kind of trade-off, the more chance it has of being adopted as a policy plank in this year’ U.S. presidential campaign.

The Price Of Our Wealth

We have taller buildings, but shorter tempers; wider freeways, but narrower viewpoints; we spend more, but have less; we buy more, but enjoy it less.We have bigger houses and smaller families; more conveniences, but less time; we have more degrees, but less sense; more knowledge, but less judgment; more experts, but more problems; more medicine, but less wellness.We drink too much, smoke too much, spend too recklessly, laugh too little, drive too fast, get angry too quickly, stay up too late, get up too tired, read too seldom, watch TV too much, and pray too seldom.We have multiplied our possessions, but reduced our values. We talk too much, love too seldom, and hate too often. We've learned how to make a living, but not a life; we've added years to life, not life to years.We've been all the way to the moon and back, but have trouble crossing the street to meet the new neighbor. We've conquered outer space, but not inner space; we've done larger things, but not better things.We've cleaned up the air, but polluted the soul; we've split the atom, but not our prejudice.We write more, but learn less; we plan more, but accomplish less. We've learned to rush, but not to wait; we have higher incomes, but lower morals; we have more food, but less appeasement; we build more computers to hold more information to produce more copies than ever, but have less communication; we've become long on quantity, but short on quality.These are the times of fast foods and slow digestion; tall men, and short character; steep profits, and shallow relationships. These are the times of world peace, but domestic warfare; more leisure, but less fun; more kinds of food, but less nutrition.These are days of two incomes, but more divorce; of fancier houses, but broken homes. These are days of quick trips, disposable diapers, throw away morality, one-night stands, overweight bodies, and pills that do everything from cheer to quiet to kill. It is a time when there is much in the show window and nothing in the stockroom; a time when technology has brought this letter to you, and a time when you can choose either to make a difference, or to just hit "Skip Ahead"...

Shame on the Arabs

آه يا عرب
1
قصفوا لبنان..
وفلسطين
برا .. بحرا .. جوا
ويسارا ويمين
حتى عدنا للعصر الحجري
واغتالوا الأرض
بذكاء قنابل لا تخطئ وجه الطفل العربيّ
فانصبَّ الليلُ يسيل بلا هدْي
أنهارا مغمضة العينين
وأنا ضغط دمي في الرقيْ
جاوز أقمار فضائياتٍ
ماتت كل ضمائرها
وانفكت كل ضفائرها
لكن البثَّ بها حيّْ..
2
هل تقرأ يا صاحي شفتيّْ؟
سجّل إني عربيّْ..
لا شيء يؤثّرُ فيّْ
إلا هزةُ خصر أو حلمةُ نهدٍ
لا شيّْ.
قد أفتى المفتي وأصاب
وله أجرانْ
عن يقظةِ هذا العربيّ النعسان
حين يرى هيفاء وروبي والسيقان
قال :
أولى النظرات حلال
وعليها لا يُؤثم إنسان
ما لم يمض على نظرته الأولى يومان
قال تعالى - أصدق من قال -
"ألَمْ نَجْعَلْ لَهُ عَيْنَيْنِ
وَلِسَانَاً وَشَفَتَيْن؟
وَهَدَيْنَاهُ النَّجْدَيْن؟"
قال المفتي -مفتي الأنذال -
كيف لنا أن نتظاهر كالعميان وكالخرسان؟
وأن نجحد هَدْيَ الرحمن؟
فلدينا يا ناسُ لسان
وله حدان
حدٌّ لمجابهة الأعداء
والحدُّ الآخر للنسوان
هذا ما أفتى عبد الرحمن
عبر فضائيات العربان
ثم أضاف :
عليكم بحبوب زرقاء
توقظ كل الأعضاء
وتنجب آلاف الأبناء
لنرهب كل الأعداء
والله هو الرزاق
يرزقكم كيف يشاء
لا تعزلْ خشية إملاق..
زِدْهُم يا ربّ صلابة
زِدْهم يا ربّ وفاق
3
آهٍ يا قانا
يا أرض الشيعة والسنة والأبطال
اتهموا أطفالك بالردة
وأقاموا الحدَّ على المرتدّين
بسيوف المغضوب عليهم
ومباركة العرب الأنذال
والله تعالى قد قال
"لا إكْراهَ في الدِّين"
4
مَن يبلغُ عني
أن أبا سفيان لعين
ما عرف الإيمان له قلبا
مَن يبلغ عني يا مستمعين
أن يزيدا قد أشعل حربا
ما زالت تأكلنا في القرن العشرين
وشفاه حسين الزهراء
ما زالت تعبث فيها الطلقاء
يا سيد شبان الجنة
أتعبنا من بعدك حكم الطلقاء
وسقونا سما
سموه قضاء وقدر
لبنان يضيع قضاء وقدر
وفلسطين تباع قضاء وقدر
القصف يخرّ علينا
كرياح من جوف سقر
أطفال تحت الأنقاض تلاشت
ما بين تراب وحجر
ونقول قضاء وقدر..
5
إتفوا عليكم وعلى أصلكم
يا عربا يا جربا كلكم
إلى متى الصمت على ما جرى
في أرض فلسطين ولبنان
ويجري لكم
هل بلغ الذل بكم مبلغا
حتى تفاخرتم بمن ذلكم؟؟
لست أقول نسوة عنكم
ما إن رأيت في النسا مثلكم
أجبن منكم ما رأت عيني
ولا على بالي خطر
أغضبتم بعد؟؟
لماذا؟
أو ليس كلامي هذا
قضاء وقدر؟؟؟